Zach Lavine made his first all star game this year, and rightfully so, he’s taken a big leap in his game to make him one of the better offensive players in the league. Lavine’s an insanely athletic 6’5 shooting guard who creates most of his value from his scoring, shooting and scoring gravity.
Zach is one of the best scorers in the league, he’s averaging 28 points per 75 on 63% TS (+7%). A big reason for his elite scoring is his athleticism and shooting. Lavine has one of the quickest first steps I have ever seen from a shooting guard, he uses his quickness and explosiveness very effectively to get downhill and beat his man. The speed at which he drives is amazing; the quickness in change of direction and how sharp his movement is, combined with a strong handle makes him one of the best rim attackers in the league. He drives slightly over 12 times a game and shoots 53% on 6 attempts on drives. He’s also amazing in isolations, although the frequency is fairly low, he’s in the 90% percentile for isos.
His finishing is great too, before his injury, Lavine shot 66.5% at the rim on really high volume (8th highest rim attempts per game). His speed to get to the basket, his insane vertical and athleticism to avoid contact allow him to be a great finisher, his finishing at the basket is 2.5% higher than league average.
What’s really impressive is his ability to create this separation when getting to the basket, the slithery movement and the patience to go through the best angles when driving allows him to get so many easier layups which he can easily convert. He’s still not amazing when met by a big at the rim and finishing while absorbing contact, a lot of his rim attempts aren’t challenged. He should get even better as a finisher once he gets stronger and gets better at absorbing contact, and gets better with his off hand too.
The biggest element of Zach’s offense is his shooting. Lavine is an elite shooter and has been one for years now. He’s shooting 41.5% on non heave 3 pointers this year on over 8 attempts a game which is amazing. In the last 3 years (including this one) he’s shot 39% on 7 attempts a game, this further proves his shooting percentages are very real and a true indicator of his shooting talent.
His pull up game is great, 38.2% on 5 3s a game is one of the best rates in the league. He’s really comfortable pulling up while driving towards both sides. Over 40% of his offense comes from pick and rolls, Zach utilizes the pull up 3 a lot after receiving a screen, his first step is so quick that it gives him enough space to stop and shoot a relatively uncontested shot.
Lavine has also used the step back a lot this season to create separation, his driving threat, ball handling and agility make him really good at this. This is a great way for him to create open looks, especially in isolations.
He loves pump faking opponents to create good looks for 3s too. The amount of space he creates with this simple move is amazing, it helps when he’s guarded by great on ball defenders.
Lavine takes about 25% percent of his total shots from the mid range, he’s actually been great from all mid range spots this year. Last year he wasn’t super accurate with his shots, but this year better decision making and shot tendencies have improves his percentages (also possibly no fans).
I really like his movement to get to his spots. He’s so patient with his drives and so effective at snaking into open spaces to take a shot. He’s also always pulling up against drop bigs, and he seems really efficient at it too, from all ranges.
I still think his mid range game and in between isn’t all that great yet, and the efficiency from inside the arc is slightly inflated. He doesn’t really have a great floater and his decision making is still not amazing, often taking tougher mid range shots instead of completing a drive and finishing at the basket or looking for a playmaking opportunity.
He’s shooting a crazy 49.5% on catch and shoot 3s, and although that might be inflated due to the sample, last year he shot 42.5%. That’s still amazing and he’s really effective playing off another ball handler who could create easier looks for Lavine. This catch and shoot skill is very valuable, especially when he plays with high level talent. He doesn’t take a lot of time after catching the ball, either shooting quickly or attacking closeouts, and he’s great at both.
His speed allows him to be amazing in transition, he loves running and finishing plays on the break. He’s also one of the best lob catching wings in the league right now. Nearly 15% of his offense comes in the open court and he also has gravity, attracting defenders towards him when running to open spaces. I think his transition passing isn’t great though, he misses some high leverage passes, especially for layups.
His explosiveness allows him to be an excellent cutter, the speed is really helpful to beat defenders and he’s very smart; knowing when and where to exactly cut. The fact that he can curl off the screens to flow into a jumpshot or cut inside while being faster than his defender makes it really hard to defend him off ball.
Zach’s athleticism, shooting touch and range make him a 3 level scorer who is very efficient from all 3 levels. I think there is some luck involved with his mid range percentages, especially considering he’s been able to hit difficult shots at a whole new level this season. He’s clearly a great finisher who drives a lot and an elite shooter both off the catch and self generated. I think his off ball game is really good and maybe would thrive with another ball handler who can create easier shots for him. He has the ability to score without controlling the full offense due to his shooting, movement and cutting.
Here’s his playtype breakdown.
| Playtype | Frequency | Percentile |
| Pick and Roll Ball Handler | 43.3% | 75.7 |
| Transition | 13.5% | 73.3 |
| Spot Up | 9.5% | 95.3 |
| Isolation | 9.4% | 90.4 |
A flaw in his scoring game is his ability to get to the line. He has a 26.8% FTr which is fairly low compared to other players around his scoring rates. He gets 7.1 free throws per 100 possessions which lands him in the 28th percentile for players averaging >22.5 points per 75. I think once he gets stronger and is more willing to go up against contact, these numbers would rise. Also instead of settling for tough mid range shots, complete a drive to the rim to initiate contact and win free throws.
Moving onto Zach Lavine’s passing and playmaking. Lavine in the past few years has not been a great passer, often missing basic reads, choosing not to pass and simply not having a great feel for passes. But I think he’s clearly improved on certain elements of passing this year, he’s a better decision maker and more comfortable with creating open shots.
He’s certainly more comfortable with passing in the pick and roll this season compared to previous ones. His decision making has improved after him playing with better talent such as Vucevic. I think he’s still inconsistent on pick and roll passing, but he does hit the roll man when he sees an opening. His deliveries on these passes are fine and he doesn’t take that long.
He has an ok feel for where his teammates are on the court, his court mapping isn’t great, often times he’s only focussed on his drive instead of scanning the floor for open opportunities.
He has a lot of scoring gravity, which leads to shooters in the corners usually being open. Lavine has definitely gotten better with his skip passes from last year, the delivery, the velocity, the accuracy, knowing there’s a pass available. He still misses a fair few of these reads, but it’s clear that he’s more willing to pass them.
Most of his passes in the pick and roll are delivered to the roll man, he’s not great at manipulating the entire defense to create open shots for the other players not involved in the action. He has limited vision and sometimes over dribbles and takes tough shots instead of finding open players.
Lavine’s drives attract so much attention, he’s good at dumping it off to the big man in the dunkers spot when he can.
Another problem with Lavine’s passing is he doesn’t really anticipate openings, he doesn’t always lead players into the pass or to open space, he mainly fires once he sees a player is clearly open. It’s not like he doesn’t take many risks, that relatively conservative passing and limited passing ability hurt his playmaking value.
Despite having clear passing flaws, his playmaking is amazing, mainly due to his scoring gravity. Lavine has a lot of scoring gravity and attracts a lot of defenders with the threat of driving and shooting. His willingness to create allows him to him punishing help defense and creating high value shots for teammates.
His scoring gravity is in the 98th percentile (an average of rim, mid range and 3 point gravity) and because of this he’s in the 97th percentile for box creation (an estimate of a players creation). He’s also in the 84th percentile for high value assists, showing his passes are worth a lot. Overall his high volume scoring aggression and gravity combined with decent but clearly flawed passing makes him a fringe top 20 playmaker in my opinion.
The last part is about his defense. To begin with, Zach was awful in the last few years, a borderline liability. But I definitely think he’s been much better this year. Zach’s on ball defense isn’t bad, typically in isolations he’s able to stay with his man due to his athleticism, his footwork a little weird though. His screen navigation is very inconsistent, there’s a few plays where’s he’d fight over them and then in the same game he struggles to go through the quickest path.
Here’s an example of his screen navigation, where he struggles to fight over the screen and find the quickest route. His consistency with navigating screens is pretty bad and he loses value due to this. He’s not exactly ideal as a point of attack defender or chasing guards in pick and rolls. But again, he’s clearly improved a lot from previous years and I think he’s still ok on ball as of now.
Despite his verticality, he doesn’t have much paint presence to alter shots.
His off ball defense is the bigger problem. Lavine’s awareness is pretty bad, his motor isn’t great (although to be fair to him, the defenders around him have been awful too), he’s not great in passing lanes either.
In this play he takes the longest possible route to get the shooter, his IQ is pretty questionable.
Here he’s just lost after Jokic grabs the offensive rebound, he totally zones out and it leads to an open 3.
This is honestly one of the worst closeouts I’ve ever seen, and I have no clue what Zach is doing here. Closeouts in general aren’t a big problem but Zach is very inconsistent with them, like most defensive traits.
He’s actually in good position here, but I think he could help a little more to cut out the drive and make it harder for Lowry.
Lavine also doesn’t provide any rim protection. He’s flat footed near the rim and doesnt wind up to jump and alter the shot.
He still has good plays off ball though, his awareness has improved since last year (although still not great). He’s also more active and quicker rotating which definitely helps.
He’s in good position here, helping off his man to slow the drive down.
I think overall the biggest problem is his consistency, he’ll make a good play off ball, be in good position to help and then on the next play he’d fail to navigate the screen properly and give up an open shot. He has clear flaws on ball, mostly consistency and footwork; especially navigating screens. And off ball just the amount of activity and the value of the plays he’s making isn’t that high (rim protection, passing lanes). When engaged he isn’t bad as a defender, much better than what he was in previous years (borderline liability). Overall I think he’s a clear negative on defense this year.
Lavine deserved to be an all star this season, he’s one of the best scorers in the league, a very good playmaker and a clear negative on defense. His game scales up to playing with better talent, where he wouldn’t lose value. I think better defensive help and playmakers would definitely optimize his game and value the most.
Boardman 