How Good Was Manu Ginobili at his Peak

Manu Ginobili is one of the best examples of “impact beyond the box score” and “the box score can’t measure a player’s true value”. One of the best players in the league at the apex of his career, Manu was super valuable to the Spurs and their title runs. Here’s a breakdown of him as a player and his best season, 2004/05, where he helped the Spurs win the championship and was an All NBA level performer.

Ginobili has one of the most versatile, unique and portable skillsets of all time. He was a great ball handler, had crafty and creative dribble moves, was really athletic and was an elite slasher. Often being the primary ball handler for the team and initiating offense. Manu in the 2004/05 season averaged 22.7 points per 75 on +8% relative true shooting. His per game scoring was 16 points per game, a fair bit lower than his per 75 rate (I’ll get to this at the end).

Manu was 6’6, 210 pounds. He was very quick, amazing at freezing defenders with hesitations, change of direction and speed, using screens very effectively, rejecting screens. Simply a very skilled slasher.

He’s great at finding the best driving angles, bursting into open space, changing direction and manipulating defenders. Look at how he drives past his man with the screen, then changes direction and splits the defender.

Here’s another amazing Manu drive where he splits the defense. That manipulation and explosiveness was a very good combination.

His handle was also fairly secure and he had some dribble moves which he used to create separation.

He drove to the basket with great success, the physical tools and his processing ability was amazing. He did have some limitations in isolation possessions though, he was very good at beating his man off the dribble but at times could struggle creating a lot of separation. His first step was great but not to the level of other elite slasher, similar to his handle which was great but not to the level of other elite ball handlers. He was very good, but not great at getting to the basket. And at times had to settle for tough off balance shots or pass it out due to this.

His dribbling wasn’t a read and react style and it wasn’t about beating defenders laterally with a lot of dribbling counters and manipulating them to get caught up in the screen. He wasn’t dribbling for that long and probing defenders to create separation. It was more about beating them with speed, straight line strides, amazing change of direction and subtle manipulations. The quickness and direct approach of these moves was very important. This is a reason why he was better at playing off other creators instead of being the primary offensive engine, despite him being capable of doing both. He wasn’t some high volume ball handler like a Chris Paul who had all pick and roll moves to deceive defenders. He was more of a hybrid who gained value next to other ball dominant stars.

With a really strong slashing game, he was also a good finisher. Manu shot 62% at the rim in 2004/05, 4 percentage points higher than league average. He took slightly less than 40% of his shots at the rim, the highest of his career. His touch was amazing, he could finish from so many angles and different ways. Manu was great at fully using his length and body to his advantage in order to finish around defenders. He’s so good at getting ahead of his man, that it makes his rim attempts a lot easier. He used to contort his body to finish effectively against great rim protectors, that unique athleticism was incredible. One thing that helped was how quick he was to get off the ground, his vertical explosion and quickness was really good for guys of his size. Manu was great at avoiding the rim protector too, floaters, runners, off hand layups, he had a lot of finishing moves in his arsenal. Despite being really explosive, he still didn’t have incredible lift and wasn’t amazing at adjusting his body for rim finishes. This is obviously in comparison to other great slashers who’s shot diet comprised of a lot of rim attempts.

He’s so quick and then he just jumps into the rim protector to finish his layups. I wouldn’t consider him that much of an above the rim finisher though, he wasn’t like a Wade type of finisher for example. He loved going across the paint and flipping in it with his left hand. Look at how he attacks the space and goes across and away from the rim protector to flip it off the window.

Manu used his body really effectively to shield himself and the ball from the defender. Bursting into space and essentially carrying the ball to the rim and then flipping it in against the glass. Look at how crafty he is and how he gets the ball away from the defender with the behind the back move. Then uses his body to push off Marion and go up for the layup. He’s not allowing Marion to strip him, alter the shot, or block the shot. These finishing skills and techniques that he had were so great.

When talking about Ginobili, we have to talk about the Euro Step. Such a creative player, he was so good at deceiving defenders with his eyes and footwork. His body control, agility and handle allowed him to master this step. The speed at which he changed directions and his understanding of angles was amazing.

Clips include games outside of 2005, but was a part of his game then.

Manu was excellent with runners, floaters, little hooks and his touch was incredible. He didn’t need to get to the basket to convert a high percentage shot. He was a great off-balance shot maker and his soft touch meant a lot of these difficult off balance shots went in.

Another important and big component of Manu’s slashing game was how him finishing while absorbing contact and his foul drawing. Manu drew 10.9 free throws per 100 possessions and was in the 98th percentile historically! This is incredible for a player who’s scoring volume was a fair bit lower than the group of players ahead of him. He had a free throw rate of 56.7%! These numbers and rates are comparable to the greatest foul drawing wings and guards ever. The free throws per 100 is similar to 2002-03 Kobe Bryant and the FTr is similar to 2016-17 James Harden. Manu shot 80% from the foul line (got better later in his career), putting him at the line was clearly a bad idea. Every free throw was incredible half court offense, consider this for 7-8 times a game. Manu wasn’t afraid of contact, he threw himself into the defender to initiate contact. The vertical explosion he had along with his willingness to literally jump at players made him one of the best foul drawers ever and he was a solid finisher while absorbing contact too. Obviously if he was stronger and more athletic it would’ve helped, being a better finisher with his off hand would too.

Manu splitting defenses with creative dribble moves and then exploding to the rim.

One of the best things about Manu’s slashing game was how quick it was. He’s possibly the player with the quickest attack in NBA history. The catch and attack, quick decisions, knowing what to do with the ball before he receives a pass, his anticipation and IQ was really good. This trait allows him to play off and fit really well with higher level talent and capitalize off their playmaking. In the Spurs setting, he was extremely good at attacking close outs and making quick moves after Tim Duncan passed it out of the post or Tony Parker kick outs from drives.

To complement his elite slashing game and a big part of his scoring profile was his shooting. Mainly, 3 point shooting. Manu shot around 38% from 3 in 2004-05 on just under 5 attempts per 75. He was a pretty versatile shooter, being capable of creating for himself, shooting of the catch and flowing into jump-shots by moving off ball. Defenders respected his driving game which allowed him to get some separation on the perimeter, and he often pulled the trigger when given enough air space. He pulled up for 3 in the pick and roll fairly frequently, his ability to stop on a dime and pull up, manipulate defenders with his eyes and movement was really good to create space. Ginobili also took some long 2s and mid range attempts, though they weren’t very frequent and he wasn’t that accurate at them.

Because of playing in the Spurs system and with Tim Duncan, he got a lot of catch and shoot opportunities, which he was pretty good at. Although I’m not sure of his C&S percentages, 91% of his 3 points were assisted. So most of his outside attempts came from off ball movement and spotting up. By 2005 there was a fair bit of ball movement and Manu was really good at spotting up and finishing the plays with 3 pointers. Of course, if defenders tried to run him off the line, he could attack the closeout and get to the rim too. He was also great at moving and relocating without the ball.

He first cuts to the basket for a layup, but since the ball is never thrown to him, he quickly relocates to the 3 point line and is ready for a shot. There’s no hesitation, he pulls the trigger for the 3 even with a defender to contest his shot. Manu was really active off ball and was always moving. He was a really active cutter and a good one, anticipating passes and moving early to connect with them. He was also a good screener, who set a lot of screens while moving off ball.

Here he drives and kicks it out to a shooter, then relocates to the other side of the court. Ready to spot up and capitalize on an advantage which was created because of his penetration. This combination of on ball playmaking and off ball movement and shooting is really valuable and is really important for great offenses.

All these traits also allow him to fit and play next to other high end talent who demand the ball. The quick attacks and slashing game off the catch, the off ball movement, the shooting and spacing value. All this helps him produce offense without controlling the ball and being the only offensive engine. Ginobili’s style of play was a big reason why the Spurs were such a good offense in those years. This scoring profile of being a great slasher and paint finisher, really good 3 point shooter, foul drawing machine and a scalable weapon is really valuable. Manu was one of the better scorers in the league at his apex, being very efficient with his clean shot profile and high free throw rates. He did clearly benefit from Duncan’s gravity, but I don’t think that’s a bad thing at all. Being one of the best scorers in the league next to a star who demands a lot of post touches is a really valuable thing. His scoring without Duncan was at 22 points per 75 on +3% rTS compared to the 21 points per 75 on +10% rTS with him.

Manu’s scoring game was great, but it wasn’t the best part of his offensive package. That would be his playmaking and passing, which is truly incredible to watch. Manu has a great argument to be the best passing SG of all time. Ginobili’s feel for passing is unmatched. His vision was incredible, he can see the entire court at all times, while on the move and when stationary. He’s one of the best ever at mapping the court, having synergy with his teammates and knowing where they move. This along with his high level anticipation ability allowed him to be one of the creative and opportunistic passers ever.

He’s seeing the whole court all the time and anticipating his teammates movements. Even before he catches the ball, he knows where the open man is and what the best pass is. This is incredibly quick processing as he’s always a step ahead of the defense and will throw the rock as early as possible to exploit the advantage. Great passers don’t need to handle the ball for that long and don’t need much time to exploit advantages. Manu Ginobili is a lot like Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Draymond Green; players that anticipated movement and threw the pass as soon as they caught the ball. All the traits that Manu has are traits that most all time great touch passers have.

This is older Manu, and yes I think he did improve as a passer as he got older. But he was regularly making these touch passes around 2005 too.

Ginobili is also very successful at making these perfect passes because of his deliveries. The velocity on his passes was perfect, always giving the receiver enough time to catch and making it near impossible for defenders to intercept the pass. His understanding of angles, as mentioned before, is great. He can make these passes with both hands and throw the rock to both sides with no problems. The accuracy on these passes was really high, especially when you consider how tight some of these passing windows are. He also lead players onto passes really well by passing the ball ahead of them into open space. He was basically guiding them to a higher quality shot with his anticipating ability and precise deliveries.

Sorry for the quality of the video.

One of the best things about Manu’s passing was, because of how advanced his passing ability was and how high is IQ was, he always looked for the best shots possible, which were often layups. 45% of his assists were layup passes, 9 percentage points ahead of league average. For his career, 43% of his assists were at the rim. These are amazing rates and show how valuable his passes were.

Along with his quick processing speed and anticipation, he was also amazing at reading defenses and reacting to what they did. He was really patient at times, waiting for defenders to move to create the best passing window and then he exploited it with ease. His ability to beat his man on the perimeter and drive towards the rim caused defenders to help off their man and leave them open. Manu could exploit these advantages in every way possible. His vision, decision making, passing accuracy and velocity, awareness all lead to him hitting these open players most of the time. He was obviously a very willing passer who didn’t take many bad shots or tried to force any of his shot attempts, he created the best looks for the team.

He also manipulated defenses a lot, his eyes were really deceiving and he tricked defenders a lot with them. He used the fake pass a lot to create better passing windows or driving lanes for himself. Manu faking a shot and then throwing a fastball for a layup reminds me a lot of Michael Jordan and Larry Bird who frequently did this. He threw off defenders with no look passes too. Defenders simply never knew what Manu was going to do, he had way too many passing and finishing counters which he could pull out whenever required.

He was also crafty with his passes, often trying new things and a dynamic fancy pass here or there. Although these weren’t Magic Johnson level passes, they were still passes that most players in NBA history wouldn’t be able to make.

Manu’s passing is beautiful to watch and historically good, but how much offense was he able to generate through his playmaking? Manu did have a lot of scoring gravity, he did attract a lot of attention from defenses with his quickness and slashing ability. But I just don’t think he was able to completely destroy defenses with his dribbling and scoring threat as some other historic playmakers. Despite his superb passing, he wasn’t able to carve up shots at the rate of some other all time great offensive engines. He did have some athleticism limitations and health limitations (compared to other all time great engines) and his scoring was amazing but more about him fitting in the system and playing off others. I consider him a better passer (by a fair bit) than guys like Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant and Allen Iverson, but those guys are also fairly better as playmakers to me because how much attention they demanded from defenses. Now obviously this is some all time great territory, and even if Manu isn’t with these guys, he’s certainly really high up for creators.

Manu’s style of playmaking is best suited next to other players who handle the ball and control the offense, as opposed to being the lead initiator and solo engine. He wasn’t like James Harden or Chris Paul where his isolation and pick and roll abilities were great enough to bend entire defenses for the entire game. Nor was he as athletic or as much of a physical machine like Lebron James where everyone on the court needed to sell out to stop him. That being said, Manu was still creating a lot of open shots for teammates. He’s one of the best secondary or ancillary playmakers of all time. His connective passing, quick decision making and ability to exploit advantages quicker and better than most players ever make him great without controlling the ball for long periods. Along with him being a great pick and roll passer and a really good on ball decision maker with high scoring gravity.

Although he didn’t and couldn’t run as many pick and rolls as some other high volume creators, Manu could most of the reads at a high level. He read the defense really well and hit the roll man fairly consistently. He also manipulated defenses and pulled weakside defenders towards him and then skipped the pass to the shooter for a wide open 3 fairly often. His hesitations threw off defenders all the time and created pocket passes to the roll man, where he often faked the shot and then threaded the needle.

Ginobili was also a great decision maker who didn’t many bad choices and wasn’t missing many clear opportunities. I do think he missed some more advanced passing reads which he could’ve hit if he was taller or a bit better when passing right to left. His drives were so quick that a lot of them were him directly getting to the cup and finishing with ease instead of probing defenses and making them react to his slashes.

Manu’s turnover rates were fairly high, 10.8% cTOV (TOV rate adjusted for your offensive load). This is fairly high, similar to guys like Steve Nash or James Harden who were really aggressive creators who turned the ball over a fair bit when trying to make high leverage passes. Now I don’t think this is necessarily bad, since he was trying to hit such tight windows and when it worked out it lead to the best shots in the game.

Manu was in the 93rd percentile historically in box creation and had really good assist numbers considering his usage was relatively low. From what I’ve watched and by the numbers, Manu got better as a passer and playmaker as he progressed in his career. 2004/05 isn’t actually his best passing self, and I think it’s clearly a bit worse than later years.

He was an on ball-off ball hybrid offensive player, sharing ball handling duties with Tony Parker and playing a lot off of Duncan post ups (although his frequency decreased in 2005). A lot of the opportunities he created were through extra passes and passes within the ball movement cycle. His ability to create so many shots without needing the ball is really scalable and helps when he’s playing next to other stars who need the ball.

To summarize everything, his offensive impact was really large and his play-style meshes really well next to other high level talent. A really quick and explosive player who loved slashing and getting to the rim and was able to do so at an elite level. He was really athletic but not at the level of some other slashers, which made his isolation ability a fair bit worse than theirs’. A pretty good finisher he wasn’t scared of initiating contact and really good at getting to the line. Really soft touch which made his game in the paint really strong. His 3 point shooting was pretty good, especially off the catch. But he wasn’t great from the mid range and didn’t have that elite shot to pull up from there and justify too many attempts. One of the quickest decision makers ever and possibly had the quickest hitting attack ever. Amazing at catching and attacking the rim without wasting any time.

His passing was amazing and he was truly great at all aspects of passing. Awareness, court mapping, anticipating movement, manipulating defenses, understanding, reading and reacting to defenses, his passing accuracy, feel and willingness. Everything was great. He had a lot of scoring gravity and along with his all time great passing, he was one of the best playmakers ever. Not really an initiator, but more of an ancillary playmaker who did a lot of secondary ball handling. He wasn’t bending defenses like crazy or carving up shots like the GOAT initiators did, but still created a lot of opportunities with his slashing, pick and roll and connective passing abilities. Also always looked for the best shots, which is really helpful for championship level offenses.

Manu’s offense was so unique with the athleticism, passing, shooting, movement, slashing. His offensive package was really versatile. It always kept defenses honest and his moves were very unpredictable. He was one of the better offensive players in the league and really valuable to the Spurs offense.

A reason why I think 2004/05 is around his peak and best year is because of the other side of the floor, defense. I consider Manu a good defender who added solid value to his teams. The Spurs were a team that had some really high end defensive pieces who made them one of the best defensive teams of all time. Tim Duncan obviously being the anchor and primary paint protector along with Rasho Nesterovic who had some defensive value. Bruce Bowen was one of the best man and isolation defenders of all time, he usually took up the best opposing matchups, mostly forwards and wings. There were some other good defenders off the bench too. With all this the Spurs had, Manu’s defensive, especially on ball, responsibilities and duties were decreased and it was easier for him. He wasn’t always guarding the best players or had to spend all his effort on that end.

That being said, his on ball and man defense was above average. He worked pretty hard to stay in front of his man, was fairly mobile and had good footwork (though it clearly had problems) to stay in front of his man and move effectively. He used his body well against smaller players to cut out driving angles. Manu’s contests on shots were pretty good, with a great wingspan and great mind he really knew how to bother offensive players and affect their shots.

He wasn’t some stopper at all, not amazing at keeping quick guards in front of him and he wasn’t that good against size since he wasn’t the strongest. His lateral quickness was good, not great though. He did get beat at times by shifty and really quick guards. He also did get caught up in screens at times, despite trying his best to navigate them as well as he could. I think his footwork here hurt him a bit, there were some instances of him moving really awkwardly while trying to navigate screens and stay with his man. He had a rather slim frame, and despite using his body effectively, it was still not the best against bigger wings and forwards.

His best defensive value add was his team defense, a lot his offensive abilities translated to this end to make him a great team defender. He had a high motor and was constantly working, whether it was chasing shooters or helping in the paint/perimeter. His high IQ and anticipation ability made it very easy for him to make valuable rotations and help to break up plays. He was good at helping off his man and making timely rotations as the help side defender because of how smart he was. He was great at reading offenses and reacting to them with the right defensive movement. With how good his vision and anticipation was, he got a lot of steals and passing lanes. He’d also leave his man and catch offensive players sleeping by poking the ball and getting steals. A guy who was great at plugging gaps in the defense due to his activity, high IQ and reactions. His processing quickness and reaction time was really quick, Ginobili was always ahead of everyone else.

Manu was great at knowing when to double and then closing out the man who was left uncovered. He did this a lot, leaves his man to aggressively trap the player with the ball which kills some clock and forces him to make a decision on the fly. And then it running fast to the unmarked player to prevent an open shot.

His awareness to help on drives and make these high leverage plays was really good. He follows his man across the baseline and then blocks the shot with a proper vertical contest and then runs the break.

Manu did provide some rim protection and value in the paint, his style was was mostly floor bound. Great at rotating early to lower the effectiveness of shots before they were taken and he just knew when to be in the right spots at the right time. Also great at taking charges, he’s also widely known as one of the best floppers ever. Those flopping tricks definitely did help get some charges which help his paint value. His length was useful for altering shots and making them harder and he had some vertical pop which really helped. He was still limited due to height and size though.

He reads the pick and roll coverage and makes a good rotation towards Amare who’s rolling to the rim. He’s there to take the charge since he can’t really alter Amare, an all time great finisher’s layup attempt. And it’s clearly very effective.

With his aggressive tendencies on defense he did gamble a bit and try and go for steals or over help at times. I don’t think he lost much value because these aggressive plays were really successful at times and lead to great transition offense.

Because of his great team defense and off ball defensive value I think he’s a solid positive as a defender. His man defense certainly wasn’t bad but I don’t think it helps teams all that much. After this season and gradually he did regress defensively due to injuries and age.

With Manu’s player profile complete, I now want to talk about a pretty important thing with Manu and how it affects his impact. Manu played 30 minutes a game in the 2004/05 season and in his years as a starter played around 29 minutes a game. In the playoffs this number went up to 33 minutes a game and for his best years it was around 32 a night. This is relatively less compared to other all NBA level players and the usual 2nd best players on championship level teams. His impact is a bit inflated because of him playing less minutes and performing at a really high level in those minutes. Compare this to a guy like Iverson who played nearly 42 minutes a night in his prime and was able to provide more per game impact (theoretically). Manu’s per game scoring rate was 16 points on +8% rTS, when you adjust for inflation and possessions it shoots up to 22 points per 75. I doubt he’d be able to sustain that impact and efficiency over a larger minutes played sample. Also his defense likely loses some value if he was playing more.

This is the thing with Manu, you’re getting the absolute best out of him when he’s playing about 30-32 minutes a night and providing unreal per possession impact. Playing on the Spurs definitely helped, I think on other teams his minutes would go up because the teams need more production and he loses that per possession value. Manu was also in a great role, being that ancillary playmaker, secondary ball handler, scoring passing hybrid who provided solid defensive value. This is like the absolute perfect 6th man who’s giving you all NBA level impact. I do think his raw production would go up in a larger role, but he would lose some value. It’s a reason why he isn’t on the levels of high volume scorers or playmakers like a James Harden (who’s pretty similar actually), Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, etc.

I think Manu Ginobili in the 2004/05 season has a really good argument to be a top 10 player in the league.